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Economic Forum


Hong Kong and Singapore’s Experience on the Impossible Trinity and its Implications for the Mainland

25 Feb 2016

In the 1960s, Robert A. Mundell and J. Marcus Fleming pointed out in a general equilibrium model that monetary policy is effective in both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes if there is no free ...Read More


How the Current Interest Rate Adjustment Differs from the Previous Rate Hike Cycle

19 Jan 2016

Seventy-eight months after the great recession ended, the Fed at last decided to end its zero interest rate policy...Read More


Hong Kong Economy Will Continue Its Moderate Growth Trend

11 Dec 2015

In the first three quarters of 2015, Hong Kong economy expanded 2.5% in real terms, continuing its moderate growth trend of 2.4% and slowing markedly from the 3.9% average over the past decade...Read More


The Trajectory of the Dollar and its Impact on RMB Internationalization

4 Dec 2015

Recently, the RMB has remained weak against the dollar. Even though the IMF deemed the RMB a freely usable currency and recommended it be included in the SDR basket, this favorable assessment did not ...Read More


A Comparative Analysis on the Balance Sheet Adjustment Mechanisms of the Big Four Central Banks

12 Nov 2015

In recent months, market participants have been fixated on when the Fed is going to raise interest rates. Regardless of when it is going to act, the Fed’s next move is likely to tighten, which is in s...Read More


Analysis on the downside pressure and structural adjustment of the Mainland economy

15 Oct 2015

Recently, the Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a fresh new low and the industrial profits of enterprises above designated size recorded a notably decline, reiterating market concern over the slowdown of t...Read More


The Daunting Challenges Emerging Markets Are Facing

6 Sept 2015

Recently, the exchange rates of Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysia Ringgit have fallen to 17-year lows against the US dollar, approaching the historical lows recorded during the Asian Financial Crisis in ...Read More


Hong Kong’s Economic Growth to Remain Moderate in the Second Half

20 June 2015

In the first quarter of 2015, Hong Kong economy expanded 2.1% in real terms over the same period of last year, slightly slower than the 2.4% in the previous quarter and lower than 3.9% average over th...Read More


Headwind? Tailwind!Examining the Direct Impacts of the RMB’s Possible Inclusion into the SDR

25 May 2015

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) unofficially begins its quintuple review of the SDR basket in recent days, with official result to be expected in October, and implementation at the beginning of ...Read More


Analysis of the RMB’s Chance to be Included in the SDR

10 April 2015

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will unofficially begin its quintuple review of the SDR basket this May, with official result to be respected in October, and implementation at the beginning of 2...Read More


Effects of CNH Exchange Rate on Offshore RMB Interest Rate

26 March 2015

Since November 2014, the exchange rate of offshore RMB to USD (CNH exchange rate) has depreciated while choppy CNH HIBOR led to a significant increase in capital cost. This article will discuss whethe...Read More


Comparison of China and US’ Bank Reserves and Their Implications

28 Feb 2015

On February 4, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced across the board and targeted cuts to reserve requirement ratios (RRR), with RRR for large banks being cut to 19.7%, and RRR for medium to sm...Read More


The Wealth Transfer from the Oil Price Plunge and Its Impacts

15 Jan 2015

Within six months in 2014, oil price plunged by more than half, triggering the Rubble crisis in Russia, who relies heavily on crude oil and natural gas exports. As wary as market participant may be, t...Read More


Hong Kong’s Economic Outlook for 2015

15 Dec 2014

In the first three quarters of the year, Hong Kong’s economy grew 2.4%, underperforming the 2.9% rate of expansion in the same period last year and lagging far behind Singapore and South Korea, where ...Read More


Causes of Sluggishness in Hong Kong’s Private Consumption Expenditure

7 Nov 2014

This year, Hong Kong’s economic growth continues to decelerate, with real GDP growth in the first two quarters coming in at 2.6% and 1.8% respectively, slower than last year’s full year growth of 2.9%...Read More


How to interpret the decline in China’s electricity consumption

2 Oct 2014

In 2010, The Economist created a Keqiang Index to track China’s economy, named after then Deputy Premier of China, Li Keqiang. It was consisted of three indicators, namely electricity consumption, rai...Read More


Development of Hong Kong’s Offshore RMB Market and Its Prospects

18 Aug 2014

Looking back at the progress over the last ten years, evidently, Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market featured being both policy-driven and market-oriented. Since the People’s Bank of China gave the green ...Read More


Hong Kong's Economic Growth Likely to Accelerate in the Second Half

30 June 2014

First is economic growth slowdown. 1Q2014 GDP merely grew by 2.5% YoY annualized, which is lower than that of annual and fourth quarter growth rate in 2013(Both2.9%YoY)...Read More


Assessing China and Hong Kong’s Exports Performances from the Standpoints of the US, EU and Japan

16 May 2014

According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) forecast, the world’s goods and services trade will grow by 4.7% in 2014 in volume, more than double the 2.1% growth in 2013, and the 2.1% growth in t...Read More


The Reasons Why the Singapore Economy Has Been Outperforming Hong Kong

17 April 2014

In 2013, the Hong Kong economy registered 2.9% real growth and 4.2% nominal growth. Its per capita GDP was USD38100. CCPI rose 4.3% on the year, and the unemployment rate averaged 3.3%. Meanwhile, the...Read More

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